Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing software products, from enhancing user experiences with personalized recommendations to automating complex processes for efficiency. As AI continues to advance, understanding its potential impact is crucial for founders and product managers aiming to stay ahead of the curve.
Strategic Foresight Concepts
The most well known concepts in strategic foresight are Speculative futures and the Futures Wheel.
Speculative futures
Speculative futures is a strategic foresight approach that explores a wide range of possible futures to understand the implications of different trends and events.
This method goes beyond predicting the most likely outcomes, instead imagining various scenarios—including the plausible, probable, and preferable—to help organizations prepare for a range of potential realities. By considering these diverse futures, product managers and founders can develop more resilient strategies and adaptable product roadmaps.
The Futures Wheel
The futures wheel is a visual brainstorming tool used to explore potential future impacts of a change or event.
The futures wheel is a specific tool within the broader realm of speculative futures. It was developed by Jerome C. Glenn in 1971, as a strategic foresight tool used to visualize and explore the potential consequences of a change or event. By mapping out first, second, and third-order effects in a structured manner, it helps individuals and organizations anticipate the ripple effects of new developments, such as AI integration, on their products and strategies.
What are the benefits of Using the Futures Wheel
This method encourages holistic thinking and informed decision-making, making it an invaluable resource for forward-thinking planning.
- Holistic Thinking: Encourages comprehensive analysis of AI’s potential impacts.
- Scenario Planning: Helps create diverse scenarios for better preparedness.
- Strategic Roadmapping: Informs strategic decisions and product roadmap development.
How can these two methods be used together?
Here’s a brief explanation of each and how they can be used together:
- Speculative Futures: Provides the framework for imagining a wide array of potential scenarios.
- Futures Wheel: Offers a structured, visual method to delve into the details of these scenarios by mapping out their consequences.
Using the futures wheel within the speculative futures approach allows for detailed exploration of specific scenarios, making it easier for product managers and founders to understand and plan for the potential impacts on their software products.
Steps to Create a Futures Wheel for AI’s Impact on Your Product
So how does this work out for your product’s roadmap. Here is a step by step guide to create a Futures Wheel to get a better grasp on how AI will impact your product.
Step by step guide
Identify the Central Change
- Example: “AI integration in customer support features.”
Generate First-Order Consequences
- Brainstorm immediate effects of this change.
- Example: Improved response times, reduced operational costs.
Identify Second-Order Consequences
- Explore the secondary effects of the first-order consequences.
- Example: Increased customer satisfaction, potential job displacement.
Expand to Third-Order Consequences
- Delve deeper into more long-term and broader impacts.
- Example: Changes in market competition, shifts in user expectations.
Analyze and Prioritize
- Evaluate the feasibility, desirability, and likelihood of each consequence.
- Prioritize the most impactful and actionable scenarios.
Applying Insights to Your Product Roadmap
- Align with Business Goals: Ensure scenarios align with your strategic vision.
- Roadmap Adjustments: Adapt your product roadmap based on prioritized scenarios.
- Risk Management: Develop strategies to mitigate potential negative impacts.
Need some help creating your product road map. We’re happy to strategize your future together.
Caroline Vrauwdeunt
CEO/Founder of ANDRS Projects: An innovator who believes innovation can only arise from collaboration. Her life’s motto is “Collaborate or Die”.
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